← Store Championship (March 8th)
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Store Championship (March 8th)
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1226
Q3 1388
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Nico | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
